Silva, dejected
MB21 gave me a response to my question…
js, I’m not sure any Cubs fans have supported Bradley than those on Another Cubs Blog (myself and others). It was a great sign at the time based on talent level. That’s undeniable.
There’s more to baseball than OBP. OBP only tells us how often a player got on base. It doesn’t tell us how many bases he advanced (slugging), it doesn’t tell us about his baserunning, and it doesn’t tell us about his defense.
Byrd has nowhere near the potential that Milton Bradley has, but Byrd, because you can count on him to play in 150 games, has as much value as Bradley. Bradley’s projected wins above replacement using the CAIRO projections and their UZR/150 projections was 2.1. Byrd is somewhere between 1.8 WAR and 2.2 WAR.
If we project Bradley to get 400 plate appearances (.369 wOBA, +1 run fielding, which he was not close to last year), he’s worth 2.0 WAR.
If we project Byrd to get 550 PA (.340 wOBA, which may be low since he’s moving to the NL Central, -2 runs fielding), he’s worth 1.9 WAR.
You lose the upside for sure, but you gain some reliability because based on Bradley’s injury history he probably won’t get 400 PA.
The difference between Byrd and Bradley is defensive position and health. Byrd has the advantage in that he plays the tougher defensive position and he also has the advantage in that he’s healthier than Bradley. Bradley has the advantage in that he’s simply a better hitter no matter how you look at it. It’s just we’re likely to see Micah Hoffpauir in RF for 200 to 300 PA or more if Bradley is the RF.
The Cubs got a crappy deal out of this, but saved money and if that money allows them to get Byrd then they come out of this no worse than they were yesterday. If they go and sign Ankiel then they’re just idiots.
I think he is spot-on. As for ^ Ankiel…I’d rather see Scotty Pos, but maybe Colvin is a better option than either.
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